Welcome to our Christmas 2021 weather forecast. Forecasting even a few days ahead is tough in the UK so how is it possible to confidently predict the weather for a single day months ahead? It isn"t! Usually things don"t firm up until mid December but it doesn"t stop us taking a fun look ahead to Christmas Day.

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Christmas weather forecast

tasiilaq.net says is our view. Regular updates have started.

The Computer says uses raw computer model data. Daily updates are running.


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tasiilaq.net says

Welcome to the Christmas Day 2021 countdown.

Slightly reduced chance of a white Christmas

The third update makes a slight downwards adjustment to the chance of a white Christmas. Nonetheless, it is still considered to be quite high relative to the average. The likelihood of cold spells during the early part of the winter this year is considered to be higher than normal due to an expected La Nina ENSO state. However, a green Christmas is still favoured in lowland parts of the UK, with snow most likely over the Scottish mountains.

The latest considerations are:

Analogues from previous years

Weather patterns through the early part of the meteorological autumn

Seasonal computer model data

Background signals and teleconnections 

Chance of snow on Christmas Day

North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 21%.

South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 16%. 

Updates: 1: 01/09, 2: 12/09, 3: 18/09.


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By Nandaro , via Wikimedia Commons
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The Computer says

Too mild for snow in the southCold conditions in Wales, marginal for snow.Cold conditions in the Midlands, marginal for snow.Too mild for snow in the northToo mild for snow in ScotlandToo mild for snow in Northern IrelandToo mild for snow in the Republic of Ireland
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Snow in the Netherlands

Forecast updated daily.


Video forecast

Video forecast for Christmas 2021 is not available yet.

Christmas period charts and data

Computer model charts and data to help you make your own forecast!

Forecast 850hPa temp anomaly

The forecast 850hPa level (about 1500m above sea level) upper air anomaly charts do not yet reach Christmas week.

Blue shading indicates colder than the 30 year average.

Red shading indicates warmer than the 30 year average.

Not available until November

The ghost of Christmas past

If the past is the best guide to the future you may find it useful and interesting to check out these charts from Christmases past. Links open in a new window.

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1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

1981 - 2010 temperature average

Average December 25th temperatures for the 1981 - 2010 period are shown on the chart below.